Umstead Race Strategy

I've been thinking about what kind of strategy to use for Umstead, and I'm probably far enough along in my thinking to put it down.

First, my goals for the race.  At a minimum, obviously, I want to finish 100 miles in the 30 hour limit.  If I have to I'll walk or crawl at the end to get there in time.  Hopefully I'll be doing better than that.  I'm going to give myself a shot at 24 hours.  Maybe I shouldn't even think about 24 hours, but I know it'll be in my mind anyway, and I think it'll help keep my pace in check knowing I don't need to run all that fast even to do it in a day.

24 hours is fairly simple math.  3 hours per loop average for 8 loops of 12.5 miles each.  I know that I'll slow down later in the race.  I'm guessing 10 minutes slower each loop, so if I start at 2:25 for the first loop, 2:35 for the second, and so on up to 3:35 for the final loop that brings me in at 24.  That's 11:36 pace for the first loop, increasing 48 seconds per loop and finishing at 17:12 pace, and 10hrs40 first half split, 13:20 second half.  I've heard that if you aren't at 50 by 11 hours at Umstead, you aren't likely to break 24.  If I come in at 2:30 for the first loop I won't be the least bit worried, and if I'm well over 11 hours at the half way point I'll just give up on 24 hours and focus on finishing.  What will worry me more is if I come in under 2:15 in the first loop.  If I'm able to run significantly under 24 hours, it should be because my loop pace doesn't drop (as much) in later loops rather than banking more time early and find out later that it was way too fast.

My thought is to run ~10:00 pace while running, with the extra time coming from walking up hills and aid station and bathroom stops.  It's possible I may talk walk breaks at predetermined time intervals, but I'm feeling like it'd be better to let the terrain dictate.  As the race progresses I expect to do more walking and take a bit longer on the stops, especially if I have to treat blisters or chafing.  I'm not going to wear a Garmin since it won't hold a charge nearly that long anyway.  I have an old Casio watch I'll probably wear just to have an idea of time.

I'm going to have a list and supplies organized for my crew to be able to quickly restock my pack while I'm checking in at the turnaround and also set out the food and drink I want.  I had mentioned in another post that I'm going to rely more on my own food than the aid station.  I want to get what I need here, but also get in and out as quickly as possible.  If I can walk out with a handful or bagful of food rather than burn time standing there, all the better.  Avoid the fire, and don't sit unless I need to do foot repair or change shoes/socks.  At the remote aid station I'll stop to get something to eat out of my drop bag where I'll also have more clothes in case the weather changes, but again I want to limit time there. 

Pacers are allowed starting with loop 5 and I'll take advantage of that, though I'm going to pick up music starting on loop 3.  I've only paced faster runners so they were good runs for me, but my pacers are faster than me so they may be bored hanging back especially if I'm listening to music and not talking, but I'll probably want the company by then, at least some of the time.  In any case it can't hurt to have their experience along.

There's a very real chance that my knees, back or hips will be aching so much that I'll have to mostly walk the later loops, or stomach issues may affect my calorie intake and sap my strength, or any number of other things may derail my race.  I'll be prepared to try to deal with as much as I can predict, but I don't see any reason to allocate extra time for disaster.  I feel like the extra 10 minutes per loop accounts for expected wear and tear.   I feel like this is a reasonable plan for me.  Others may have had success with different plans, but I've got to go with what I believe in.  If it fails, I have myself to blame.  If I follow a plan I don't buy into, I'll be regretting not going with what I believed in.  Of course this plan isn't set in stone and I'm absorbing advice and experiences from others.